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Montag, 07 Mai 2018 15:06

Ansgar Belke mit eigener Session "Oil and the Macroeconomy" auf der Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik (VfS) in Freiburg

Ansgar Belke wurde mit der von ihm vorgeschlagenen und organisierten Session "Oil and the Macroeconomy" für die Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik (German Economic Association), 2.-5. September 2018 in Freiburg, akzeptiert. Er wird Chair der Session sein und das Paper "Oil price shocks and current account imbalances within a currency union with imperfect labor markets" (gemeinsam mit Timo Baas) präsentieren.

Inhalt der Session:
Nine out of ten of the U.S. recessions since World War II were preceded by a spike up in oil prices (Hamilton 2014). A huge share of the literature tested whether oil prices and output are not just statistical coincidence (Rasche and Tatom 1977, 1981, Hamilton 1983, Burbidge and Harrison 1984, Santini 1985, 1994, Gisser and Goodwin 1986, Rotemberg and Woodford 1996, Daniel 1997, Raymond and Rich 1997, Carruth, Hooker, and Oswald 1998, and Hamilton 2003). In the first paper of this session, we contribute to this debate by analysing oil prices and U.S. GDP using monthly data and a non-linear Markov-switching approach giving more insight into this relation. In the second paper, we use a large set of possible determinants of oil prices to and stress the fact that global activity, an index developed by Kilian (2009), is the only significant measure to explain time-varying oil price persistency. We dig deeper the relationship between the global economy and oil prices by analysing the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates. The third paper finds strong long-run links between exchange rates and oil prices and short run predictability of one with the other. Finally, we build a theoretical DSGE-model showing that oil price shocks can have a long-lasting impact on current account imbalances in a currency union where the exchange rate adjustment mechanism is missing. The fourth paper shows the exposure of members of a monetary union to unexpected changes in oil prices and the limited possibilities of a common central bank to counter such effects."

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