Dienstag, 08 Januar 2019 09:45
New publication by Ansgar Belke and Thomas Osowski: "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach" in the Scottish Journal of Political Economy
The paper by Ansgar Belke and Thomas Osowski "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach" is just published in the Scottish Journal of Political Economy. This paper identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries empirically using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. The aim was to look at the sign and the absolute values of fiscal spillovers in a countrywise perspective and at the time profile (impulse response) of the impacts of fiscal shocks. They find moderate spillover effects of fiscal policy shocks originating in Germany and France. However, there is significant variation regarding the magnitude of the spillovers on individual destination countries and country clusters. Furthermore, they find some evidence that German or French fiscal spillovers are stronger on EMU than on non‐EMU countries.
The full article you can find here.