MAKRO: Aktuelle Meldungen https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de/ Aktuelle Meldungen für: Ad personam Jean Monnet-Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insb. Makroökonomik, Universität Duisburg-Essen de MAKRO: Aktuelle Meldungen https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de/ https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de/ Aktuelle Meldungen für: Ad personam Jean Monnet-Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insb. Makroökonomik, Universität Duisburg-Essen TYPO3 - get.content.right http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Tue, 11 Feb 2020 11:45:56 +0100 Prof. Belke accepted (joint with Steffen Elstner and Svetlana Rujin) at the 28th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (SNDE) in Zagreb, Croatia https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/prof-belke-accepted-joint-with-steffen-elstner-and-svetlana-rujin-at-the-28th-symposium-of-the-society-for-nonlinear-dynamics-and-econometrics-snde-in-zagreb-croatia20869/ The paper "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies" by Ansgar Belke, Steffen Elstner and Svetlana Rujin has been accepted for presentation at the 28th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (SNDE) conference at the Faculty of Economics and... The paper "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies" by Ansgar Belke, Steffen Elstner and Svetlana Rujin has been accepted for presentation at the 28th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (SNDE) conference at the Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), University of Zagreb, in Zagreb, Croatia, on March 26 & 27, 2020.

The aim of the meeting is to present and discuss recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of nonlinearity in economics and finance. Confirmed keynote speakers are Hélène Rey (London Business School) and Bruce E. Hansen (University of Wisconsin-Madison). The conference traditionally brings together between 130 and 170 outstanding scientists, researchers and central bankers from around the world.

More about the company and the conference can be found here and here.

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Tue, 11 Feb 2020 11:45:56 +0100
Congrats to our new PhD Svetlana Rujin! https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/congrats-to-our-new-phd-svetlana-rujin-20867/ PhD Defense of Svetlana Rujin, February 4, 2020, RWI Essen “Macroeconomic Effects of Technological Innovations: International Evidence“ With Profs Matthias Busse (Bochum) and Christoph Schmidt (Bochum and RWI Essen) PhD Defense of Svetlana Rujin, February 4, 2020, RWI Essen

“Macroeconomic Effects of Technological Innovations: International Evidence“

With Profs Matthias Busse (Bochum) and Christoph Schmidt (Bochum and RWI Essen)

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Tue, 11 Feb 2020 10:23:30 +0100
Prof. Belke mit Vortrag beim Research Seminar des Instituts für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung der Universität Osnabrück https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/prof-belke-mit-vortrag-beim-research-seminar-des-instituts-fuer-empirische-wirtschaftsforschung-der-universitaet-osnabrueck20865/ Am 04.02.2020 präsentierten Ansgar Belke und Sina Asshoff (Universität Duisburg-Essen) ihr aktuelles Papier "Unconventional monetary policy and in inflation expectations in the Euro area" im Research Seminar des Instituts für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung der Universität... Am 04.02.2020 präsentierten Ansgar Belke und Sina Asshoff (Universität Duisburg-Essen) ihr aktuelles Papier "Unconventional monetary policy and in inflation expectations in the Euro area" im Research Seminar des Instituts für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung der Universität Osnabrück.

Mehr Informationen finden Sie hier.

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Tue, 11 Feb 2020 09:49:15 +0100
New publication by Ansgar Belke in the Journal Open Economies Review https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/new-publication-by-ansgar-belke-in-the-journal-open-economies-review20810/ Ansgar Belke, Ulrich Volz (2020): "The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry", Open Economies Review, pp 1–36. Abstract Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after... Ansgar Belke, Ulrich Volz (2020): "The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry", Open Economies Review, pp 1–36.

Abstract

Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with “expensive yen recessions” resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the article investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the article uses both aggregate and industry-specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry-specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too.

Please find full text of this paper in PDF file here.

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Tue, 21 Jan 2020 09:27:20 +0100
New paper by Ansgar Belke, Sina Asshoff and Thomas Osowski on the ECB‘s unconventional monetary policies and inflation expectations https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/new-paper-by-ansgar-belke-sina-asshoff-and-thomas-osowski-on-the-ecbs-unconventional-monetary-policies-and-inflation-expectations20804/ Sina Aßhoff, Ansgar Belke, Thomas Osowski (2020): "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area", Ruhr Economic Papers #837. Abstract: With the ECB’s policy rate having reached the zero lower bound, traditional monetary policy tools became ineffective and the... Sina Aßhoff, Ansgar Belke, Thomas Osowski (2020): "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area", Ruhr Economic Papers #837.

Abstract:

With the ECB’s policy rate having reached the zero lower bound, traditional monetary policy tools became ineffective and the ECB was forced to adopt a set of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures. This paper examines the effects of the ECB’s UMP on inflation expectations in the Euro area as inflation expectations play a key role for achieving the inflation target of below, but close to 2%. Quantifying the impact of UMP is not straightforward, as standard empirical tools such as VAR cannot be applied. Hence, we use the Qual VAR approach pioneered by Dueker (2005) to overcome this problem. We indeed find that UMP leads to a rise in inflation expectations in the short run but that this effect appears to evaporate in the medium term. Our results put some doubt on the common claim that UMP has consistently contributed to a re-anchoring and a stabilisation of inflation expectations at the zero lower bound. Nevertheless, they indicate a rise in medium-term real GDP growth triggered by UMP.

Please find full text of this paper in PDF file here, Ruhr Economic Papers, Essen and here, CEPS Working Documents, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brüssel.

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Thu, 16 Jan 2020 12:44:55 +0100
Prof. Belke erneut in den Fakultätsbeirat der Friedrich- Schiller-Universität Jena berufen https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/prof-belke-erneut-in-den-fakultaetsbeirat-der-friedrich-schiller-universitaet-jena-berufen20803/ Auf Vorschlag der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät wurde Prof. Belke erneut in den wissenschaftlichen Fakultätsbeirat der Friedrich- Schiller-Universität Jena für die Dauer von 4 Jahren berufen. Auf Vorschlag der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät wurde Prof. Belke erneut in den wissenschaftlichen Fakultätsbeirat der Friedrich- Schiller-Universität Jena für die Dauer von 4 Jahren berufen. 

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Thu, 16 Jan 2020 09:48:28 +0100
New Ruhr Economic Paper: by Ansgar Belke, Steffen Elstner and Svetlana Rujin on "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies" https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/new-ruhr-economic-paper-by-ansgar-belke-steffen-elstner-andsvetlana-rujin-on-growth-prospects-and-the-trade-balance-in-advanced-economies-20740/ Ansgar Belke, Steffen Elstner and Svetlana Rujin (2019): "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies", Ruhr Economic Papers #827. Abstract: Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the... Ansgar Belke, Steffen Elstner and Svetlana Rujin (2019): "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies", Ruhr Economic Papers #827.

Abstract: Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the tendency for countercyclical fluctuations in the trade balance stressed by both the academic literature and policymakers. However, we do not find that improved growth prospects (news shocks) necessarily lead to negative trade balance effects in the G7 countries. We develop a novel news shocks identifi cation scheme, apply it to country-level vector autoregressions (VARs), and obtain the following results. While in the U.S., news shocks induce a persistent deterioration of the trade balance, the negative trade balance effect in Germany is only temporary. By contrast, in other G7 countries, news shocks induce positive and transitory trade balance effects. Consumption smoothing and substantial fluctuations in investment and labor input are important drivers of these results for the U.S., and less so in other G7 countries. Therefore, policy recommendations to reduce the trade imbalances through productivity-enhancing reforms in advanced economies are likely to yield only temporary effects.

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Tue, 17 Dec 2019 11:51:28 +0100
Das aktuelle Interview von Prof. Belke in der Wirtschaftswoche https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/das-aktuelle-interview-von-prof-belke-in-der-wirtschaftswoche20739/ "Deutschland steht wegen seiner chronischen Handelsbilanzüberschüsse unter internationalem Druck. In unserer neuen Studie gehen wir der Frage nach, was derartige Überschüsse senken kann - und was nicht."- Ansgar Belke Mitautor Belke, Professor für Makroökonomik, sagt: „Häufig lautet die... "Deutschland steht wegen seiner chronischen Handelsbilanzüberschüsse unter internationalem Druck.

In unserer neuen Studie gehen wir der Frage nach, was derartige Überschüsse senken kann - und was nicht."- Ansgar Belke

Mitautor Belke, Professor für Makroökonomik, sagt: „Häufig lautet die Forderung, Deutschland müsse die öffentlichen Investitionen ausweiten, um diesen Überschuss abzubauen“. Dieser Ansatz aber greife zu kurz. Grund: Ein Konjunkturprogramm kurbelt die heimische Nachfrage allenfalls temporär an und verpufft anschließend. Die Wirkung staatlicher Ausgaben versiegt nach wenigen Jahren.

Die Autoren nehmen stattdessen eine andere volkswirtschaftliche Größe in den Blick: das Wachstumspotenzial. Internationaler Währungsfonds und Europäische Kommission fordern schon lange, Deutschland müsse die Wachstumsaussichten und Produktivität seiner Volkswirtschaft steigern, um die Unwucht in der Handelsbilanz zu beseitigen.

Den gesamten Artikel finden Sie hier.

Die Studie von Ansgar Belke, Steffen Elstner and Svetlana Rujin zu "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies" in den Ruhr Economic Papers #827 können Sie hier als PDF herunterladen.

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Tue, 17 Dec 2019 11:03:09 +0100
Neues Ruhr Economic Paper: Ansgar Belke und Jens Klose zu "Safe Haven Flows, Natural Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation" und deren Evidenz für die Eurozone https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/neues-ruhr-economic-paper-ansgar-belke-und-jens-klose-zu-safe-haven-flows-natural-interest-rates-and-secular-stagnation-und-deren-evidenz-fuer-die-eurozone20738/ Ansgar Belke, Jens Klose (2019): "Safe Haven Flows, Natural Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation - Empirical Evidence for Euro Area Countries", Ruhr Economic Papers #831. Ansgar Belke und Jens Klose entwickeln eine neue Methode zur Messung von Safe Haven Flüssen für zwölf Staaten des... Ansgar Belke, Jens Klose (2019): "Safe Haven Flows, Natural Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation - Empirical Evidence for Euro Area Countries", Ruhr Economic Papers #831.

Ansgar Belke und Jens Klose entwickeln eine neue Methode zur Messung von Safe Haven Flüssen für zwölf Staaten des Euroraums. Da diese Flüsse der Theorie nach den natürlichen Zinssatz beeinflussen, der  wiederum im Zentrum der Diskussion bezüglich des Themas säkulare Stagnation steht, schätzen sie den natürlichen Zinssatz in einem Modell mit Safe Haven-Flüssen. Sie zeigen, dass eine Einbeziehung von Safe Haven-Flüssen in der Tat den natürlichen Zinssatz in einigen Staaten des Euroraums ändert, was wiederum Rückwirkungen auf die Inzidenz einer säkularen Stagnation ebendort hat. Die Ergebnisse deuten an, dass der natürliche Zins in Ländern mit Safe Haven-Zuflüssen sinkt, während er in Staaten steigt, die sich mit Safe Haven Abflüssen konfrontiert sehen.

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Tue, 17 Dec 2019 10:41:39 +0100
New publication by Ansgar Belke in the Journal of Economics and Statistics, special Issue on "20 years of European Monetary Union" https://www.makro.wiwi.uni-due.de//aktuelles/new-publication-by-ansgar-belke-in-the-journal-of-economics-and-statistics-special-issue-on-20-years-of-european-monetary-union-20720/ The paper "Did Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound Affect Lending of Commercial Banks? Evidence for the Euro Area" by Ansgar Belke and Christian Dreger has been published in the Journal of Economics and Statistics ((Vol. 239/5-6, 2019, pp. 841-861),... The paper "Did Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound Affect Lending of Commercial Banks? Evidence for the Euro Area" by Ansgar Belke and Christian Dreger has been published in the Journal of Economics and Statistics ((Vol. 239/5-6, 2019, pp. 841-861), Special Issue on "20 years of European Monetary Union".

You can find the table of contents with links to the papers here.

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Tue, 10 Dec 2019 11:55:13 +0100