"German stimulus might also help countries which don’t really need it. Ansgar Belke, professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen, reckons more affluent Finland, Ireland and the Netherlands could be beneficiaries, while effects on Greece, Spain and Portugal might be “rather low.”

Belke adds that at the current juncture, the trade war poses a challenge to the transmission of a stimulus. His research shows that “fiscal policies are not as effective in uncertain times as in tranquil times.” Others have also noted that government spending shocks had larger impact in booms than in recessions.

On that last point, IMF officials seem to disagree".

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